Only by comparing constituencies with those in similar situations can we learn what it is that policy can and should do to boost prosperity in them.
While parliamentary constituencies are frequently contrasted to either one another or the national average, this comparison tells us less in reality than the figures suggest. We shouldn’t expect all parliamentary constituencies to be as prosperous as one another. Understanding them in the context of where they are located and who they are located next to changes the understanding of how we should expect them to perform.
Looking at data on average incomes is a good example of this. Figure 1 shows a familiar story – one of a national divide in incomes, with the Greater South East doing much better than elsewhere in the country. While striking, there are two issues with this map:
Figure 1
Let’s look at the first issue. To do so Figure 2 breaks the map down into three categories – urban, hinterland (within commutable distance of a city) and deep rural – which allows for a like with like comparison.
Figure 2
Now let’s turn to the second issue. While deep rural constituencies consistently have the lowest incomes across regions, the most prosperous area is not the same across regions. In the Greater South East incomes are highest for urban dwellers, followed by those living in constituencies around cities. But elsewhere hinterlands are where the most prosperous residents live. And in the Midlands and the North, average incomes of city residents are lower than they are in deep rural areas (see Figure 3).
Figure 3
This results from both the economic performance of cities and how attractive they are as places to live. Cities in the Greater South East are home to lots of high-paid jobs (Figure 4). Many people choose to live and work in these areas, making them the most prosperous of the urban constituencies, and a good number choose to live outside and commute in, making them in turn the most prosperous of the hinterland constituencies.
Figure 4
Other areas are also dependent on urban constituencies for jobs. With the exception of the South West, hinterland locations have similar flows of commuters into urban constituencies as is the case in the Greater South East – between 25 and 31 per cent (see Figure 5). So, on average there is little difference in how reliant hinterland residents are on cities to provide prosperity. The problem is that the underperformance of these cities means that while they provide access to jobs, they don’t provide as much access to high-paid opportunities. This limits the amount of prosperity they are able to spread (see Figure 4).
Figure 5
This means that for many incoming MPs the performance of their neighbouring constituencies has a big impact on the prosperity of voters in his or her own patch.
These insights matter to both MPs and to policymakers.
It’s understandable that prospective MPs will want to tell their voters about how they will bring greater prosperity to the constituency. But what can be achieved very much depends on what role the constituency plays in the national economy. ‘Vote for me and we’ll bring jobs in down the road’ is hardly a successful election strapline. But for places outside the Greater South East that is what will be required. Whatever they tell the electorate, they will need the urban constituency of the neighbouring MP to perform better.
‘I’ll make you the most prosperous rural area’ is another line you’ll never hear on the election trail. But that is what success realistically will be for most deep rural areas. We should try to improve the performance of a deep rural constituency where we can, but attempting to make it as prosperous as a Bristol or a Brighton is unrealistic. While candidates won’t ever say this out loud, they should at least avoid saying any hostages to fortune.
For policymakers wanting to both close regional divides and improve the performance of the UK economy, this analysis once again underscores the impact of the underperformance of cities outside of the Greater South East. If the MPs that make up the next government want to increase access to prosperity across the country, they need cities, and particularly large ones, to be making a much greater prosperity generating machines than they currently are.
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